news 6 days ago

Expert Week 6 NFL Survivor Pool Advice, Tips, Picks for Knockout Football Pools

Sporting News — customerservice@sportingnews.com (Sporting News)

Those in NFL survivor pools have a tough choice in Week 6: Continue with a season-long strategy of picking against the Dolphins -- which means picking arguably the second-worst team in the NFL on the road -- or try your luck elsewhere. The Patriots (vs. Giants) are an obvious pick, but many have already used them. The Ravens and Cowboys are also very popular, but they've both looked vulnerable in recent weeks. This is definitely the type of week where you need the expert, data-driven advice for eliminator and knockout pools that only TeamRankings can provide.

Below, we'll break down the pros and cons of the five most popular survivor picks of Week 6: Baltimore, New England, Dallas, Green Bay, and Kansas City. TeamRankings the only site that provides customized picks that maximize your edge in survivor pools. Since 2017, TeamRankings subscribers have reported nearly $1.5 million in survivor pool winnings. Check out their NFL survivor pool picksfootball pick 'em contest picks, and NFL betting picks.

More From TeamRankings:
Football Pick 'em Picks | NFL Survivor Picks | NFL Betting Picks

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Last week's survivor pick analysis

The Chiefs lost at home to Indianapolis, meaning the second most popular survivor pick has fallen in consecutive weeks. The Chiefs’ loss eliminated about 23 percent of entries that were alive entering the week. The Bears (4.3-percent popularity) and Chargers (3.0-percent popularity) also snuck into the top five in popularity numbers by the end of the week, and both also lost. The overall public survival rate for Week 5 was about 68.6 percent, with the Chiefs’ loss making up nearly three-quarters of those eliminations.

Week 5 also marked the second week in a row where our recommendations largely avoided the second most popular choice, as Kansas City made up only 0.4 percent of our final pick recommendations to subscribers. Our subscriber recommendations did recommend the Bears at a rate significantly higher than the public (12.2 percent vs. 4.3 percent), but we were also lower on the Chargers than the public. Overall, our subscriber pick recommendations survived 84.6 percent of the time, well above the public rate. 

With the higher survival rate last week, the yearly edge for our recommendations over the public also increased. The expected public survival rate through Week 5 is now at about 26 percent of all entries still alive in standard pools, while TR recommendations have survived at a 35-percent rate (proportionally, that’s about 35 percent better than the public).

WEEK 6 FANTASY RANKINGS:
Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | Kicker

Week 6 NFL Survivor Pool Pick Tips, Analysis

You may be experiencing a sense of deja vu, with the Patriots and Ravens as the most popular survivor picks this week. We’ve seen that before, back in Week 2 when New England played the Jets and Baltimore played the Cardinals. Should you use either of them? And where do you go if neither of those teams is available to you? We’ll explore all of that as we break down the most popular choices of Week 6.

Baltimore Ravens (vs. Cincinnati Bengals)

Survival Pool Pick Popularity: 34%
Point Spread: -12

The Ravens are back as the most popular choice for Week 6 (they were the second-most popular choice back in Week 2 against Arizona). This has always looked like one of the most likely weeks to use Baltimore, and they are a relatively safe choice this week with 82-percent win odds against the 0-5 Bengals.

Baltimore occupies their own tier when it comes to safety in Week 6. They are well behind the Patriots but have win odds nearly 10-percent higher than the next choices on the board, the Cowboys and Chargers. Add in that the Cowboys were the most popular choice at 55-percent popularity in Week 3 and the Chargers were selected by 44 percent of the public in Week 4 (in a week with a very high elimination rate), and neither Dallas nor the Chargers are available as a pick to many entries this week.

The schedule gets much tougher for Baltimore after this game, and the next time we project them to have win odds above 70 percent in a game is in Week 15, at home against the Jets.

More From TeamRankings:
Football Pick 'em Picks | NFL Survivor Picks | NFL Betting Picks

New England Patriots (vs. New York Giants)

Survival Pool Pick Popularity: 23%
Point Spread: -16.5

The case for New England, as is seemingly true most weeks, is that they are the safest play on the board. It's just a matter of deciding when to use them, as the Patriots still have the highest future value of any team. 

The Patriots get the Giants on a short week, and New York will be without their top tight end  (Evan Engram), top wide receiver (Sterling Shepard), and top two running backs (Saquon Barkley and Wayne Gallman). All those absences mean the point spread line is well above two touchdowns, and our models give New England a 91-percent chance of winning.

Dallas Cowboys (at New York Jets) 

Survival Pool Pick Popularity: 13%
Point Spread: -7.5

Dallas travels to face the Jets, and New York quarterback Sam Darnold is expected to play for the first time since Week 1. That makes this one a little riskier than it would have been if he was out, as the Jets offense has been awful without him. As it stands, Dallas's win odds are at 73 percent.

This might be the best spot to use Dallas, though, if you still have them available. The only other week where they have higher projected win odds is in Week 17 against Washington at home.

Green Bay Packers (vs. Detroit Lions)

Survival Pool Pick Popularity: 9%
Point Spread: -4.5

Green Bay has been little used so far in survivor pools compared to other top options this week. The only other week when they've attracted any survivor support was Week 3, when eight percent of the public went with the Packers over the Broncos. There is a good chance that many entries have already used some combination of the Ravens, Patriots, or Cowboys. 

Our models put the Packers’ win odds are at 69 percent over the Lions at home, which is significantly riskier than the safest teams this week but not that big a drop from the Cowboys in terms of safety.

As far as future value, the Packers don't look like they will be an option in most future weeks, but they could be a popular choice next week when hosting Oakland and could also be the safest choice in Week 14 when they host Washington.

Kansas City Chiefs (vs. Houston Texans) 

Survival Pool Pick Popularity: 4%
Point Spread: -5

Chiefs backers got burned last week at home against an AFC South opponent. The Chiefs get another chance just a week later at home against Houston. The risk profile for Kansas City is similar to Green Bay and not far behind Dallas. You will want to keep an eye on injury news with the Chiefs' offense, though. Tyreek Hill could return this week from the shoulder injury that has kept him out since Week 1, and Sammy Watkins (hamstring) also played only two snaps a week ago.

The Chiefs' future value took a hit with the adjustment to their predictive rating after the loss and they no longer have the second-highest survivor future value in the NFL (San Francisco's surge also is a factor in the Chiefs dropping down the future value list). The Chiefs still look like a great choice in both Weeks 13 and 15 when they play Oakland and Denver at home if you do not use them this week.

Get our Week 6 Survivor Pool pick recommendation

The teams above are the most popular survivor picks of Week 6, but that doesn’t mean one of them is the best pick for you. Your best NFL Week 6 survivor pick is the one that offers the ideal balance of safety, pick popularity, and future value for your specific pool.

We built our NFL Survivor Picks tools to do all of the necessary number crunching to figure out the best pick(s) for your pool. You simply answer a few questions about your survivor pool's size and rules, and enter the teams you've picked so far. Then, it provides customized Week 6 pick recommendations based on the latest matchup data, Vegas odds and public picking trends.

The result? Since 2017, on average, more than 30 percent of our subscribers have reported winning a survivor pool every year. We invite you to give the product a try for free, and good luck in your survivor pools in Week 6!

FREE TRIAL OFFER: Sporting News readers can get a free three-day premium trial to TeamRankings, including game predictions, betting picks, and customized picks for pick 'em and survivor pools. Claim your free trial now!