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BMW Championship daily fantasy golf picks, sleepers, fades, strategy

Sporting News — customerservice@sportingnews.com (Sporting News)

With no cut this week at the BMW Championship, the typical risk that comes along with investing in contrarian golfers is significantly diminished. Furthermore, the smaller size of the field will result in increased overlap between PGA DFS lineups. As a result of these factors, aggressively targeting talented golfers that will receive relatively low ownership will give you the best chance of winning a GPP contest.

MORE: BMW Championship Betting Advice  |  RotoQL Lineup Builder

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BMW Championship picks and PGA DFS strategy

Target Golfers

The golfer I am most excited about rostering for the BMW Championship is Tiger Woods. It’s hard to think about playing Tiger as an against-the-grain strategy, but I expect his ownership to be very mild. After he missed the cut badly at The Open, a bunch of injury speculation culminated in a poor opening-round showing last week, only to be followed by an early withdrawal. DFS players are now looking at a golfer with two-straight missed cuts and significant injury concerns. Tiger was already a somewhat contrarian selection last week, and he has likely lost a lot of support from that small group by withdrawing. While the concerns are valid, overlooking arguably the best golfer to ever play at a diminished price and low ownership is a mistake. Tiger has shown many times before that he can simply outplay the field, even when we least expect it. If all it takes is for his back, oblique or whatever is ailing him this week to feel good in order to do so, the DFS community could be in for another big surprise.

Louis Oosthuizen seems to always go overlooked in DFS. He is one of the few golfers who generally performs with incredible consistency and yet doesn’t see his ownership follow. This week, Oosthuizen’s price is slightly higher than it normally is compared to some of the other golfers in the field, and I anticipate that will keep his ownership low despite a high finish last week. He has seven top-10s and a win this season, and he hasn’t missed a cut in his last eleven tournaments. For some reason, Oosthuizen generally doesn’t garner much DFS attention. That makes him a prime candidate to help you differentiate your lineups this week.

This may seem like an odd fit for a contrarian suggestion, but I expect Patrick Reed to be an unpopular play this week. There are a couple of key variables that should keep ownership on the winner of last week’s event low. First, Reed has received a significant price bump. Compared to his long-term form, the price seems a little high for Reed, and heavily based on his win. In addition, the DFS community tends to be slightly tentative with golfers that are coming off a win, for no real mathematical reason. The result is a golfer that is getting a baseless bad label and a price increase, which will combine to have a doubly negative impact on his ownership. Reed is obviously in outstanding form and was playing excellent golf even before his win, and he makes for an intriguing leverage play.

Aaron White graduated from Northwestern University with a B.A. in Economics. He has played DFS professionally for several years and has won featured NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL and golf GPPs on both FanDuel and DraftKings.